The Intrinsic Value Podcast - The Investor’s Podcast Network

Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O'Malley revisit Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META), the advertising machine behind Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp that reaches 3.6 billion people every day — over 40% of the world's population — and just grew ad revenue 27% to a nearly $240 billion annual run rate. Yet the stock trades more than 20% below its highs, because the money is going out even faster than it's coming in: operating margins fell from 43% to 31% in a single year, quarterly free cash flow collapsed from $8.5 billion to $784 million, and capex guidance now sits at $130–145 billion this year — with analysts penciling in $200 billion for next.

Daniel and Shawn dig into what all that spending actually buys. Is this Mark Zuckerberg's third failed attempt to turn Meta into a platform — after the FarmVille-era Facebook apps and a $100 billion metaverse — or does AI finally make the vision real, whether through AI glasses, a personal agent, a budding cloud business, or an ad engine where every pixel becomes sellable inventory? They also cover Meta's $17 billion settlement with 47 states over teen safety, the special purpose vehicles keeping tens of billions of data-center debt off Meta's balance sheet, why Apple is quietly taking the opposite side of Meta's bet, and why Wall Street rewards Google for the same capex it punishes Meta for. In the end, Daniel rebuilds his valuation model from scratch and decides whether Meta finally earns a spot in The Intrinsic Value Portfolio.



IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

(00:00:00) Intro

(00:00:45) About Zuckerberg’s Platform Dream

(00:11:30) Why Meta was sued and how it settled

(00:20:53) What the regulatory risk means for Meta’s future

(00:28:33) What Meta’s AI vision looks like

(00:37:30) How AI could revolutionize Meta’s Ads Business

(00:40:47) About the optionality of WhatsApp

(00:48:13) Why AI could make Meta glasses a success

(01:02:20) How Meta is planning to build a Cloud Business

(01:18:40) Meta's valuation discussion

(01:22:47) How much Meta's stock is actually worth

(01:22:57) Whether META will be added to The Intrinsic Value Portfolio

Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.



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Track ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Portfolio⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Portfolio Review ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Submit Tool⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Zuckerberg’s WSJ Article – The AI Future is for Everyone.

Ben Thompson’s Research at Stratechery.

Check out the original Meta episode.

Check out our previous Intrinsic Value breakdowns Uber, Nike, Reddit, Nintendo, Airbnb, AutoZone, Alphabet, Ulta, John Deere, Madison Square Garden Sports.

Related ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠books⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ mentioned in the podcast.

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In today's episode, Kyle Grieve and Shawn O’Malley revisit Alphabet nearly two years after Shawn's original pitch, tracing how the company transformed from a cash-rich, buyback-driven business into an aggressive spender on AI infrastructure. They walk through what changed across Search, YouTube, Cloud, and Waymo, and unpack why the market's fears around AI disrupting Google were largely unfounded. Along the way, they dig into how Alphabet is funding its buildout, what that means for shareholders, and which questions will determine whether this evolved version of the business is actually better.



IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

(00:00:00) Intro

(00:00:41) Why Shawn’s original Alphabet thesis needed a revisit

(00:06:55) How the AI-kills-search narrative played out in reality

(00:30:28) Why Google Cloud’s margins surprised skeptical investors

(00:43:48) How Waymo went from afterthought to major asset

(00:49:44) How Alphabet’s AI spending flows through its earnings

(01:03:12) What Berkshire Hathaway’s growing stake signals about the company

(01:03:47) Why Alphabet paused buybacks and started raising equity

(01:07:15) Which unresolved questions will define Alphabet’s next few years

(01:13:13) Whether Kyle & Shawn will add to their Alphabet in the Intrinsic Value Portfolio

Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.



BOOKS AND RESOURCES


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Track ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Portfolio⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Portfolio Review ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Submit Tool⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Our original podcast deep-dive on Alphabet.

Check out our previous Intrinsic Value breakdowns: SpaceX, Microsoft, Meta.

Related ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠books⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ mentioned in the podcast.

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Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O'Malley revisit Copart (NASDAQ: CPRT), the online salvage auction giant that turns totaled cars into a global marketplace, connecting insurers with more than a million buyers across 190 countries. Copart owns over 250 salvage yards outright — land that's increasingly difficult to permit today — and compounded earnings per share at over 20% a year for a decade. But the stock is down more than 40% from its highs, U.S. insurance volumes have fallen for four straight quarters, and its main competitor, IAA, has now outgrown Copart for six straight quarters.

Daniel and Shawn dig into what actually broke. Is the volume decline cyclical, driven by Americans dropping insurance coverage after premiums rose ~50% in three years — or structural, as Progressive becomes America's largest auto insurer while sending three-quarters of its salvage to IAA? They also cover why founder-era CEO Jay Adair returned after four years away, why Copart just bought back $1.6 billion of its own stock after five years of nothing, and what a rumored acquisition of CCC Intelligent Solutions would mean for a company that has never carried meaningful debt. In the end, Daniel updates his valuation model and decides whether Copart earns its way back into The Intrinsic Value Portfolio.


IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

(00:00:00) Intro

(00:00:46) What changed since our last episode on Copart

(00:12:42) How Copart’s moat works

(00:17:55) Whether Copart’s moat still exists

(00:20:30) Whether competition actually gained market share

(00:39:57) What new CEO Jay Adair wants to change

(00:58:23) How much Copart stock is actually worth

(01:05:32) Whether CPRT will be added to The Intrinsic Value Portfolio



Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.



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Our original deep-dive on Copart.

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Check out our previous Intrinsic Value breakdowns Uber, Nike, Reddit, Nintendo, Airbnb, AutoZone, Alphabet, Ulta, John Deere, Madison Square Garden Sports.

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Shawn O’Malley and Daniel Mahncke revisit Uber (NYSE: UBER), one of the largest holdings in The Intrinsic Value Portfolio, fifteen months after they first pitched it. In that time, Uber’s operating profits have roughly doubled, free cash flow has climbed to about $10 billion a year, gross bookings are compounding around 20% annually, and the board authorized a new $20 billion buyback. And yet the stock is flat, with its multiple of operating profits cut from 55 times down to roughly 22 times.

Shawn and Daniel discuss why the market is pricing Uber as though autonomy ends the story — Waymo raising $16 billion at a $126 billion valuation, roughly the same market cap as all of Uber, and formally ending its exclusive partnerships in Austin and Atlanta. They dig into the more than 20 AV partners Uber has lined up in response, from Nuro and Lucid to Rivian, NVIDIA, Zoox, WeRide, Baidu, and Pony.ai, plus Uber’s $14.8 billion offer for Delivery Hero, the margin inflection driven by advertising, insurance normalization, and Uber One — and whether the market is writing down the entire company for a risk that touches maybe a tenth of its profits.

IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

(00:00:00) Intro

(00:00:44) Why Uber’s stock is flat while its operating profits have doubled

(00:03:53) How Uber’s operating margins swung 55 percentage points in under six years

(00:05:12) Why advertising, Uber One, and insurance reform keep pushing margins higher

(00:24:09) What Waymo ending its exclusive deals in Austin and Atlanta really means

(00:36:22) How much of Uber’s profits are genuinely exposed to robotaxis

(00:41:28) Why Uber is racing to sign more than 20 autonomous vehicle partners

(00:49:07) What Uber’s $14.8 billion offer for Delivery Hero actually buys it

(00:57:14) Why Shawn and Daniel are happy to keep owning Uber

Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.



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Learn more about how to join us in NYC for our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Intrinsic Value Conference⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Portfolio Review ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Submit Tool⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Our original podcast deep-dive on Uber.

Lewistown Capital’s Ride or Die: The Self-Driving S-Curve.

Uber’s acquisition offer for Delivery Hero.

Uber & Rivian’s robotaxi partnership for up to 50,000 vehicles

NVIDIA’s plan to launch robotaxis on Uber across 28 cities.

Uber’s investor relations site.

Waymo’s $16 billion funding round.

Check out our previous Intrinsic Value breakdowns:
Grab Holdings, Lyft, DoorDash.

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In today's episode, Kyle Grieve and Shawn O’Malley break down AppLovin, the mobile advertising platform that went from a failed app recommendation tool to one of the most profitable businesses in ad tech. They walk through how the company makes money on both sides of the ad exchange, why its data advantage has been so hard for competitors to copy, and what caused the market to turn on the stock so violently after a relatively strong quarter. Along the way, they dig into the founder's track record, the buyback program that made early shareholders rich, and whether the growth story still has room to run.

IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

(00:00:00) Intro

(00:01:46) How a failed app became a global advertising platform

(00:10:35) How AppLovin makes money from advertisers and publishers

(00:15:36) Why real-time auctions beat the old waterfall method

(00:28:36) What actually protects AppLovin from Google and Meta

(00:33:17) Why AppLovin bought mobile game studios, then sold them

(00:53:11) How buybacks created enormous value

(01:04:13) Details on the executive comp structure

(01:09:31) What we think triggered the post-earnings collapse

(01:14:55) Where the next leg of growth could come from

(01:24:39) Valuation discussion of AppLovin

(01:26:07) Intrinsic Value of AppLovin

(01:26:31) Whether Kyle & Shawn will add AppLovin to the Intrinsic Value Portfolio

Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.



BOOKS AND RESOURCES


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Alphabet, Meta, Reddit, Trade Desk, Uber.

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