The Intrinsic Value Podcast - The Investor’s Podcast Network

Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O'Malley take a deep dive into Kaspi.kz (NASDAQ: KSPI), the Kazakhstani super-app that combines payments, e-commerce, and fintech into a single platform that most of the country uses every day. They unpack how the business actually makes its money across its three segments, why its dominance at home has been so hard for competitors to challenge, and how a company this profitable ends up trading at only around seven times earnings.

Daniel and Shawn discuss the company's founders and incentive structure, its expansion into Turkey through Hepsiburada, the role of its high dividend in the investment case, and the risks that come with it – from the oil-linked currency to the governance questions raised in the Culper short report. They also walk through how Daniel values the business and whether Kaspi.kz deserves a spot in The Intrinsic Value Portfolio.



IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

(00:00:00) Intro

(00:00:36) How Kaspi became Kazakhstan's No.1 superapp

(00:15:45) What business units Kaspi operates

(00:33:49) What role the fintech business plays

(00:36:07) How the marketplace differs from Mercado Libre and Shopee

(00:43:34) What the competitive environment in Kazakhstan looks like

(00:51:11) What the Turkey expansion means for the business

(01:18:26) Valuation discussion of Kaspi

(01:21:59) Whether Kaspi is valued attractively

(01:25:24) Whether Shawn and Daniel add KSPI to the Intrinsic Value Portfolio



Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.



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Track ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Portfolio⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Learn more about how to join us in NYC for our ⁠⁠Intrinsic Value Conference⁠⁠.

Portfolio Review ⁠Submit Tool⁠.

Kaspi CEO ⁠Presentation⁠.

Interview with the CEO, ⁠Mikhail Mikheil⁠.

Chris Paryse ⁠Pitch on Kaspi⁠.

Business Breakdowns ⁠Episode on Kaspi⁠.

Response to Culper’s ⁠Short Report⁠.

Check out our previous Intrinsic Value breakdowns:⁠⁠⁠ ⁠Amazon⁠⁠⁠, ⁠Sea Limited⁠, ⁠Mercado Libre⁠, ⁠Shopify⁠.

Related ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠books⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ mentioned in the podcast.

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Shawn O'Malley and Daniel Mahncke explore Restoration Hardware (ticker: RH).

In this episode, you'll learn how RH was able to reinvent itself as a high-end furniture retailer, using opulent galleries, high-end dining, private yachts, and a membership model based on Amazon Prime and Costco.

RH is an incredibly bold and unique business, not afraid to use unconventional viral marketing efforts to drive customers into stores, as they aim to set styles for the ultra-rich. Shawn and Daniel dig into the business, risks for shareholders, and estimate RH’s intrinsic value, plus so much more!

IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

(00:00:00) Intro
(00:02:27) How RH has built an American luxury brand, defining home-design tastes
(00:05:51) Why yachts and private jets are actually core to RH’s strategy to sell furniture to the ultra-rich
(00:14:36) About the eccentric and fascinating world of Gary Friedman and his tastes that define RH
(00:26:18) Why RH pivoted to a membership-based model for discounting in 2016
(00:41:30) What RH is planning on doing in response to its debt maturity wall looming in 2028
(00:50:17) How RH is using sale-leasebacks and monetizing its real estate to improve capital efficiency
(00:53:55) How to think about the intrinsic value of RH
(00:58:21) Whether Shawn and Daniel add RH to the Intrinsic Value Portfolio

Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.

BOOKS AND RESOURCES


Join the exclusive ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Mastermind Community⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Track ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Portfolio⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Learn more about how to join us in NYC for our ⁠Intrinsic Value Conference⁠.

Check out our previous Intrinsic Value breakdowns: ⁠Transdigm⁠, ⁠Salesforce⁠, ⁠Berkshire Hathaway⁠, ⁠FICO⁠, ⁠PayPal⁠, ⁠Uber⁠, ⁠Nike⁠, ⁠Amazon⁠, ⁠Airbnb⁠, ⁠Alphabet⁠.

Check out RH’s ⁠investor relations page.⁠

Listen to Business Breakdowns’ ⁠podcast⁠ on RH.

Related ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠books⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ mentioned in the podcast.
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Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O'Malley take a deep dive into Auto1 Group (ETR: AG1), the Berlin-based used-car platform. What trips most investors up about Auto1 is that it's two different businesses in one – a capital-light merchant marketplace on one side, a capital-heavy consumer retail bet on the other – and the asset-heavy model that everyone points to as the risk is arguably the same thing that kept Auto1 alive while better-funded competitors went bankrupt.

The market tends to fixate on the inventory sitting on Auto1's books and misses that the two halves of the business earn their returns in entirely different ways. Daniel and Shawn walk through how the thin margins on each car turn into something far more attractive once you account for how fast Auto1 cycles its inventory, and why none of it works without the funding structure underneath: a non-recourse ABS architecture that lets Auto1 carry enormous inventory without raising equity to match. That's the piece capital-light rivals skipped, and a large part of why they didn't survive.

Daniel and Shawn examine whether Auto1's instant-guaranteed-pricing model is a genuine consumer moat or a balance-sheet liability in disguise, what the economics actually look like in 2026 once you separate the merchant flywheel from the retail build-out, and the more uncomfortable side of the bull case – that net income can read positive while cumulative free cash flow stays deeply negative when new debt is funding operations. They also assess whether Auto1 Group deserves a spot in The Intrinsic Value Portfolio.



IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

(00:00:00) Intro

(00:00:31) Why the traditional used-car market doesn’t work well

(00:07:42) About the size of the used-car market

(00:10:32) How Auto1’s business model works

(00:13:58) Who Auto1’s founders are

(00:19:43) How Auto1 buys and sells cars

(00:32:20) How the unit economics work

(00:54:25) Valuation discussion of AG1

(00:58:08) Whether Auto1 is valued attractively

(01:00:14) Whether Shawn and Daniel add AG1 to the Intrinsic Value Portfolio



Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.



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Kyle Grieve and Shawn O’Malley analyze American Tower, the global cell tower business that powers the wireless networks we rely on every day. They unpack how leasing tower space to carriers creates durable recurring revenue, why its stacked competitive advantages form one of the widest moats in the market, and how a steadily growing debt load complicates the picture.

IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:
(00:00:00) Intro
(00:00:44) How American Tower powers the wireless networks we use
(00:05:52) How AMT creates recurring revenue
(00:07:04) Why adding additional tenants dramatically boosts profits per tower
(00:12:56) The three moats protecting American Tower from competitors
(00:30:22) Why the REIT structure forces heavy reliance on debt
(00:36:56) What American Tower's capital allocation reveals about management
(00:38:36) Whether the data center deal was worth it
(00:52:19) How carrier consolidation threatens even the widest moats
(00:56:22) Why a wonderful business isn't always a wonderful investment
(01:06:48) Intrinsic value of AMT
(01:09:04) Whether Kyle and Shawn will add AMT to the Intrinsic Value Portfolio

Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.

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Brad Jacob’s first book, ⁠⁠How to Make A Few Billion Dollars⁠⁠.

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Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O'Malley take a deep dive into Copa Holdings — the Panama-based hub-and-spoke airline whose investment case now turns on two of the most debated questions in the stock today: whether Copa is a structural exception to the airline curse — protected by a geography no rival can copy and a cost base only a handful of carriers in the world can match — or whether even the best airline in the Americas eventually gets pulled into the same gravity that has destroyed value for nearly every other carrier.

Some investors believe Copa is a structural exception the market consistently underprices because it's lumped in with the broader sector, with a Panama hub at the geographic center of the hemisphere that lets it serve 85 destinations using nothing but single-aisle 737s, a sub-6¢ ex-fuel cost base only Ryanair, Wizz Air, and a couple of others can match, a 99.8% completion rate that turns the "missed flight" tax hammering other carriers into one of Copa's structural cost advantages, and a 38-year CEO who has refused to expand into Europe or chase growth at any price.

Join Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O'Malley as they work through whether Copa's hub-and-spoke economics are genuinely uncopiable or just holding off the gravity that has eventually captured nearly every other airline, examine what Copa's structural advantages actually look like in 2026 versus the "all airlines destroy capital" narrative the market still anchors to, and assess whether Copa Holdings deserves a spot in The Intrinsic Value Portfolio.



IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

(00:00:00) Intro

(00:00:47) Why airlines are such a tough business to be in

(00:02:49) What Buffett and other superinvestors think

(00:16:05) Why Copa is different than other airlines

(00:30:41) How being the best-in-class business can change the investors’ outcome

(00:36:37) How Copa built its moat

(00:55:35) How Copa can defend its moat

(01:17:25) Valuation discussion of Copa

(01:19:47) Whether Copa is valued attractively

(01:22:31) Whether Shawn and Daniel add CPA to the Intrinsic Value Portfolio



Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.



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Track ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Portfolio⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Try out our Portfolio Review ⁠Submit Tool⁠.

Check out the Value Investor Club ⁠Article⁠.

Read the Asymmetric Edge Substack Article.

Warren Buffett on the Airline Industry in his Annual Letters.

Follow Shawn on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠X⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

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Check out our previous Intrinsic Value breakdowns: Uber, Nike, Reddit, Nintendo, Airbnb, AutoZone, Alphabet, Ulta, John Deere, Madison Square Garden Sports.


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