The Intrinsic Value Podcast - The Investor’s Podcast Network

In today's episode, Kyle Grieve and Shawn O’Malley revisit Alphabet nearly two years after Shawn's original pitch, tracing how the company transformed from a cash-rich, buyback-driven business into an aggressive spender on AI infrastructure. They walk through what changed across Search, YouTube, Cloud, and Waymo, and unpack why the market's fears around AI disrupting Google were largely unfounded. Along the way, they dig into how Alphabet is funding its buildout, what that means for shareholders, and which questions will determine whether this evolved version of the business is actually better.



IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

(00:00:00) Intro

(00:00:41) Why Shawn’s original Alphabet thesis needed a revisit

(00:06:55) How the AI-kills-search narrative played out in reality

(00:30:28) Why Google Cloud’s margins surprised skeptical investors

(00:43:48) How Waymo went from afterthought to major asset

(00:49:44) How Alphabet’s AI spending flows through its earnings

(01:03:12) What Berkshire Hathaway’s growing stake signals about the company

(01:03:47) Why Alphabet paused buybacks and started raising equity

(01:07:15) Which unresolved questions will define Alphabet’s next few years

(01:13:13) Whether Kyle & Shawn will add to their Alphabet in the Intrinsic Value Portfolio

Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.



BOOKS AND RESOURCES


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Our original podcast deep-dive on Alphabet.

Check out our previous Intrinsic Value breakdowns: SpaceX, Microsoft, Meta.

Related ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠books⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ mentioned in the podcast.

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Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O'Malley revisit Copart (NASDAQ: CPRT), the online salvage auction giant that turns totaled cars into a global marketplace, connecting insurers with more than a million buyers across 190 countries. Copart owns over 250 salvage yards outright — land that's increasingly difficult to permit today — and compounded earnings per share at over 20% a year for a decade. But the stock is down more than 40% from its highs, U.S. insurance volumes have fallen for four straight quarters, and its main competitor, IAA, has now outgrown Copart for six straight quarters.

Daniel and Shawn dig into what actually broke. Is the volume decline cyclical, driven by Americans dropping insurance coverage after premiums rose ~50% in three years — or structural, as Progressive becomes America's largest auto insurer while sending three-quarters of its salvage to IAA? They also cover why founder-era CEO Jay Adair returned after four years away, why Copart just bought back $1.6 billion of its own stock after five years of nothing, and what a rumored acquisition of CCC Intelligent Solutions would mean for a company that has never carried meaningful debt. In the end, Daniel updates his valuation model and decides whether Copart earns its way back into The Intrinsic Value Portfolio.


IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

(00:00:00) Intro

(00:00:46) What changed since our last episode on Copart

(00:12:42) How Copart’s moat works

(00:17:55) Whether Copart’s moat still exists

(00:20:30) Whether competition actually gained market share

(00:39:57) What new CEO Jay Adair wants to change

(00:58:23) How much Copart stock is actually worth

(01:05:32) Whether CPRT will be added to The Intrinsic Value Portfolio



Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.



BOOKS AND RESOURCES


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Our original deep-dive on Copart.

Value Investor Club Long Thesis.

Value Investor Club Short Thesis.

Check out our previous Intrinsic Value breakdowns Uber, Nike, Reddit, Nintendo, Airbnb, AutoZone, Alphabet, Ulta, John Deere, Madison Square Garden Sports.

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Shawn O’Malley and Daniel Mahncke revisit Uber (NYSE: UBER), one of the largest holdings in The Intrinsic Value Portfolio, fifteen months after they first pitched it. In that time, Uber’s operating profits have roughly doubled, free cash flow has climbed to about $10 billion a year, gross bookings are compounding around 20% annually, and the board authorized a new $20 billion buyback. And yet the stock is flat, with its multiple of operating profits cut from 55 times down to roughly 22 times.

Shawn and Daniel discuss why the market is pricing Uber as though autonomy ends the story — Waymo raising $16 billion at a $126 billion valuation, roughly the same market cap as all of Uber, and formally ending its exclusive partnerships in Austin and Atlanta. They dig into the more than 20 AV partners Uber has lined up in response, from Nuro and Lucid to Rivian, NVIDIA, Zoox, WeRide, Baidu, and Pony.ai, plus Uber’s $14.8 billion offer for Delivery Hero, the margin inflection driven by advertising, insurance normalization, and Uber One — and whether the market is writing down the entire company for a risk that touches maybe a tenth of its profits.

IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

(00:00:00) Intro

(00:00:44) Why Uber’s stock is flat while its operating profits have doubled

(00:03:53) How Uber’s operating margins swung 55 percentage points in under six years

(00:05:12) Why advertising, Uber One, and insurance reform keep pushing margins higher

(00:24:09) What Waymo ending its exclusive deals in Austin and Atlanta really means

(00:36:22) How much of Uber’s profits are genuinely exposed to robotaxis

(00:41:28) Why Uber is racing to sign more than 20 autonomous vehicle partners

(00:49:07) What Uber’s $14.8 billion offer for Delivery Hero actually buys it

(00:57:14) Why Shawn and Daniel are happy to keep owning Uber

Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.



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Portfolio Review ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Submit Tool⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Our original podcast deep-dive on Uber.

Lewistown Capital’s Ride or Die: The Self-Driving S-Curve.

Uber’s acquisition offer for Delivery Hero.

Uber & Rivian’s robotaxi partnership for up to 50,000 vehicles

NVIDIA’s plan to launch robotaxis on Uber across 28 cities.

Uber’s investor relations site.

Waymo’s $16 billion funding round.

Check out our previous Intrinsic Value breakdowns:
Grab Holdings, Lyft, DoorDash.

Related ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠books⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ mentioned in the podcast.

Ad-free episodes on our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Premium Feed⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.


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In today's episode, Kyle Grieve and Shawn O’Malley break down AppLovin, the mobile advertising platform that went from a failed app recommendation tool to one of the most profitable businesses in ad tech. They walk through how the company makes money on both sides of the ad exchange, why its data advantage has been so hard for competitors to copy, and what caused the market to turn on the stock so violently after a relatively strong quarter. Along the way, they dig into the founder's track record, the buyback program that made early shareholders rich, and whether the growth story still has room to run.

IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

(00:00:00) Intro

(00:01:46) How a failed app became a global advertising platform

(00:10:35) How AppLovin makes money from advertisers and publishers

(00:15:36) Why real-time auctions beat the old waterfall method

(00:28:36) What actually protects AppLovin from Google and Meta

(00:33:17) Why AppLovin bought mobile game studios, then sold them

(00:53:11) How buybacks created enormous value

(01:04:13) Details on the executive comp structure

(01:09:31) What we think triggered the post-earnings collapse

(01:14:55) Where the next leg of growth could come from

(01:24:39) Valuation discussion of AppLovin

(01:26:07) Intrinsic Value of AppLovin

(01:26:31) Whether Kyle & Shawn will add AppLovin to the Intrinsic Value Portfolio

Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.



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In today's episode, Kyle Grieve and Shawn O’Malley revisit Comfort Systems USA, a business Shawn originally passed on at $320 that has since appreciated fivefold due to explosive data center spending. The company shattered original projections, with accelerating organic growth, expanding margins, and exceptional capital efficiency. Despite acknowledging the business quality, the hosts discussed whether the original decision reflected a flawed investment process or was the natural outcome of applying a strict investment framework.

IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

(00:00:00) Intro
(00:07:16) How AI data center spending transformed a boring contractor into a multi-bagger
(00:22:43) How to use the backlog to be directionally correct about the company’s future
(00:27:59) About the tailwinds behind their organic growth
(00:41:13) Why surety bonding capacity creates a widening competitive advantage
(00:49:39) About how the return on incremental invested capital has improved
(01:02:20) About their exceptional incentive plan
(01:05:06) Why are we uncertain about Comfort’s high growth metrics 5-10 years from now
(01:09:11) Valuation discussion of Comfort Systems
(01:12:21) Whether Kyle & Shawn will add Comfort Systems to the Intrinsic Value Portfolio

Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.



BOOKS AND RESOURCES


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